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Perceived effect of the cashless policy of the central bank of Nigeria on improvement of the payment system in Nigeria
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This study investigated the effect of the Central Bank Cashless Policy on the Payment System in Nigeria.

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  1. International Journal of Management (IJM)
    Volume 10, Issue 6, November-December 2019, pp. 294–316, Article ID: IJM_10_06_029
    Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/ijm/issues.asp?JType=IJM&VType=10&IType=6
    Journal Impact Factor (2019): 9.6780 (Calculated by GISI) www.jifactor.com
    ISSN Print: 0976-6502 and ISSN Online: 0976-6510
    © IAEME Publication

    PERCEIVED EFFECT OF THE CASHLESS
    POLICY OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA
    ON IMPROVEMENT OF THE PAYMENT
    SYSTEM IN NIGERIA
    Dr Robinson O. Ugwoke
    Department of Accountancy University of Nigeria Enugu Campus, Nigeria

    Maureen Okafor
    Central Bank of Nigeria.

    Vivian, O. Ugwoke
    Department of Accountancy University of Nigeria Enugu Campus, Nigeria

    ABSTRACT
    This study investigated the effect of the Central Bank Cashless Policy on the
    Payment System in Nigeria. Cognizance of the fact that an improved exchange
    mechanism and payment system is central to the survival and growth of Nigerian
    economy which had suffered severe recession between 2015 and 2019, it applied
    survey research design to poll 204 bank workers from four banks in Nigeria to
    ascertain their perception on the extent to which the cashless policy has addressed the
    problem of exchange and payment system in Nigeria. The independent variable was
    cashless policy while the dependent variables were cash based transactions;
    modernization of payment system; and volume of cash outside the formal economy.
    Using Correlation Coefficient with SPSS 10 the test of hypotheses showed that there
    was a statistically significant relationship between the cashless policy and the
    development and modernisation of the payment system (i.e. p < 0.05 at 0.05
    significance level) while it has significantly trimmed down the volume of cash in the
    informal sector in Nigeria by nearly 32% among others. It was concluded that the
    cashless policy has significantly and positively improved exchange and payment
    system in Nigeria. as well as reduced drastically the volume of cash in the informal
    sector of the economy including reducing significantly the number of cash based
    transactions in the economy. It was recommended inter alia, that the monetary
    authorities should embark on a second phase of the policy to bring more transactions
    under the cashless policy.
    Keywords: Automated Teller Machine (ATM); Point of Sale Terminal (PoS); Web
    Based Transaction; Alternative Payment Channel; Financial Fraud: Inflation; Cash
    Payment System; Financial inclusion.

    http://www.iaeme.com/IJM/index.asp 294 editor@iaeme.com

  2. Dr Robinson O. Ugwoke, Maureen Okafor and Vivian, O. Ugwoke

    Cite this Article: Dr Robinson O. Ugwoke, Maureen Okafor and Vivian, O. Ugwoke,
    Perceived Effect of the Cashless Policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria on
    improvement of the Payment System in Nigeria, International Journal of Management
    (IJM), 10 (6), 2019, pp. 294–316.
    http://www.iaeme.com/IJM/issues.asp?JType=IJM&VType=10&IType=6

    1. INTRODUCTION
    In Nigeria, the major means of payment for transactions is cash. This is usually associated
    with myriads of challenges which make it very difficult for the monetary policy tools to be
    effective in controlling the economy towards targeted destinations. Financial system
    intermediation in an economy is a broad based responsibility of the Reserve Bank. It is a
    high-visibility project in which the financial authorities observe the core macro and micro
    variables of the system and identify the appropriate times to intervene and the appropriate
    intervention tools to deploy for effective and efficient working of the system (Ihekoronye,
    2012). Reserve banks around the world have long grappled with the problem of designing and
    effecting alternative payment system to preserve the value of money, reduce the risk of cash
    transactions, protect the economy from cash induced financial abuses and make large ticket
    transactions convenient and easy to consummate at reasonable costs (Ihekoronye, 2012).
    The advent of the internet and telecommunication technology which created a web
    environment for digital communication has made the job much simpler for the monetary
    authorities. Today, there are various digital settlement channels and platforms alternative to
    cash or any other possible physical settlement system and monetary authorities globally have
    aptly latched onto this to enhance the policy environment.
    In this wise, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in 2012 introduced the policy framework
    labeled “cashless policy”. The name does not in itself mean that the economy will become a
    completely digital one in which transactions in cash are forbidden, but rather mirrors a system
    in which significant volume of total exchanges occur by means of alternative payment
    channels. It is a system in which digital payment system is highly encouraged (Marco &
    Bandiera, 2004).
    The aim is to reduce the volume of physical cash in circulation without actually reducing
    the volume of money (M1 and M2) in circulation. It is also aimed at reducing the cost of
    processing cash by banks, the cost of printing notes by the Minting Company and especially,
    the risks associated with dealing in raw cash in a country like Nigeria. Moreover, it is also
    intended to help draw into the formal financial system most people who presently operate
    significant volumes of cash but reside outside the regulatory radar of the Central Bank, thus,
    enhancing financial monitoring and tax revenue. It is again expected to improve the
    technological culture in the country by encouraging the resort to digital technology in
    effecting payments for transactions. According to the Central Bank (2012), the policy is to
    significantly reduce cash-based transactions by stipulating a cash handling charge on daily
    cash withdrawals in excess of N500,000 for individuals and N3,000,000 for Corporate bodies.
    Basically, the policy is to encourage enhanced resort to electronic-based transactions.
    Other major reasons adduced by the CBN (2012) as bases for the policy include: to drive
    development and modernization of the payment system in line with Nigeria‟s vision 2020; to
    reduce the cost of banking services (including cost of credit) and drive financial inclusion by
    providing more efficient transaction options and greater reach; to improve the effectiveness of
    monetary policy in managing inflation and driving economic growth.
    In addition, the cash policy aims to curb some of the negative consequences associated
    with the high usage of physical cash in the economy, including: high cost of cash along the
    value chain, high risk of using cash, high subsidy (CBN analysis showed that only 10 percent

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  3. Perceived Effect of the Cashless Policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria on improvement of the Payment System
    in Nigeria

    of daily banking transactions are above 150,000 but this 10 percent accounts for majority of
    the high value transactions for which the entire banking population subsidizes the costs of
    their cash transactions); to trim down the volume of cash outside the formal economy thus
    making more effective the use of monetary policy in managing inflation and encouraging
    economic growth. Hence, Osazevbaru & Ofoelue, (2012) note that the purpose is to curb
    inefficiency and corruption, leakages and money laundering.
    According to the CBN (2012), the application of this policy is not holistic. Exceptions
    abound. For instance, Government revenue generation account, Primary Mortgage
    Institutions, Microfinance Banks and Embassy based transactions were exempted. In terms of
    limits, there was to be cumulative daily limits for withdrawal (for Individuals, the daily free
    withdrawal limit was N500,000 which applied to accounts so far as it involves cash,
    irrespective of channel e.g. over the counter, ATM, 3rd party cheques cashed over the
    counter, etc in which cash is withdrawn. For instance, if an individual withdraws N450,000
    over the counter, and N150,000 from the ATM on the same day, the total amount withdrawn
    by the customer is N600,000, and the service charge will apply on N100,000 (the amount
    above the daily free limit). The limit also applies to cash brought through CIT (cash in transit)
    companies, as the CIT company only serves as a means of transportation. The pilot program
    for this policy commenced in Lagos on 1st January 2012 but the application of charges began
    on March 30th with Lagos as the first city. Thereafter, it took effect on October 1st 2013 in
    Rivers, Abia, Anambra, Ogun, Kano and the FCT. The service charge for daily withdrawals
    above the limit into an account is borne by the account holder (David, 2012).
    The main aim of this paper is ascertain the exact effect of the cashless policy on the
    Nigerian Payment System in the economy. Prior empirical studies like that of Odior and
    Banuso (2012), Okey (2012) and Yaqub (2013), used a content analysis approach without
    quantitative data to address the subject. Most recent studies in Nigeria, for example, Adewoye
    (2013), Ajayi (2014), Alagh (2014) and Ashike (2011), however, examined the impact of
    cashless policy on bank profitability. This therefore means that there is still a gap on how the
    policy affects the Nigerian payment system. This study is therefore geared towards
    ascertaining the extent to which the cashless policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria has yielded
    the anticipated result of improving the payment system. It covers electronic banking in
    Nigeria focusing on ATM, POS, and Web based transactions during the period 2012 to 2017.

    1.1. Statement of the Problem
    African economies are basically cash-based. The dominance of cash in the settlement system
    is evident in the cost of printing new notes in Nigeria every year and indicative of a poor
    culture of technology and low levels of technological infrastructure, less efficient economy
    and high cost structure within the economy (Ashike, 2011). Looking back in history, societies
    in past have adopted various means of payment to facilitate exchange. The prehistoric times
    had used various means of exchange suitable to their time; barter, the Goldsmith‟s receipts,
    commodity monies like cowries and iron and the likes. In all of these, the constant problem of
    determination of real future value of pending transactions which relates to the function of
    money known as “the store of value” was recurrent and there was little convenience. Trends
    evolved and currency notes were introduced (Ashike, 2011). The advent of notes, which
    represents a government fiat making money a legal tender, proved much more convenient. It
    helped money to serve as a store of value because it was stable. This led to boom in economic
    transactions (David, 2012). However, although the use of cash has lasted much longer than
    any other known means of exchange in history, it has not been without problems and today,
    most economic systems are seeking suitable alternatives (not replacement) to cash owing to

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  4. Dr Robinson O. Ugwoke, Maureen Okafor and Vivian, O. Ugwoke

    the risk of carrying cash, the corruption it breeds, the cost of minting and printing and the cost
    of moving and managing cash (Olajide, 2012).
    Today, there are various forms of electronic payment channels like the ATM, Internet
    channel, POS and others. There are also bullion money, bit coin, and some other forms of
    digital money. However statistical evidence available at the CBN (2012) and Osazevbaru &
    Yomere (2015) shows that cash related transactions accounted for 99% of customers‟
    activities in Nigeria banks as at December, 2011. It estimated that of the total volume of
    transactions that passed through the five conventional payment channels in 2011, ATM
    withdrawal accounted for 50.9%, over-the-counter (OTC) withdrawal, 33.72% and cheques
    13.56%. Point of sales (POS) and web channels accounted respectively for 0.49% and 1.26%.
    Obviously, the combination of ATM and OTC withdrawals amounting to 84.96% justifies the
    claim of the CBN that the Nigerian economy is heavily cash-based hence the imperative for
    cash-less policy. The higher the velocity of cash usage, the higher the processing cost borne
    by those in the value chain. The CBN (2011) argued that it is this high and rising cost that
    triggered the attempted redenomination of the Naira. It puts the direct cost of cash processing
    and management to the Nigerian financial system as at 2009 at a colossal amount of N114.5
    billion excluding bank cash infrastructure cost and employee costs attributable to cash
    logistics. Clearly, this evidence provides a platform for migration to cash-less economy. This
    statistics clearly shows the need for a policy intervention encouraging a massive migration to
    the digital payment and exchange alternative which is what the cashless policy represents
    (Olajide, 2012). Ever since the cashless policy was introduced to address the problems that
    were highlighted above, cash related corrupt practices, cash theft, cash management running
    costs et cetera are still rife. Most importantly, the Nigerian economy has not feared better
    recently. In fact it has suffered a severe recession between 2015 and 2018 despite the general
    belief that an improved exchange mechanism and payment system is central to the survival
    and growth of any economy (James, 2012; Olajide, 2012; Oyetade and Ofoelue, 2012; Obodo,
    2012; Marco and Bandiera, 2004; Moody Analytics, 2010). That is, no economy thrives
    without a sound and properly functioning payment system. Hence, the real concern of most
    Nigerians regarding the cost and risks imposed by cash dominated payment system which
    gave impetus to the introduction of the system in the first instance.

    1.2. Objectives of the Study
    The main objective of this study is to determine the effect of the CBN cashless policy on the
    Nigerian payment system. Specifically, the study is set to achieve the following objectives: 1)
    ascertain the extent to which the cashless policy has reduced cash-based transactions in
    Nigeria; 2) determine the extent to which the cashless policy has contributed to the
    development and modernization of the payment system in Nigeria; and 3) ascertain the extent
    the cashless policy has helped to trim down the volume of cash outside the formal sector in
    Nigeria.

    1.3. Research Questions
    In order to achieve the above objectives, the following questions have been asked: 1) to what
    extent has the cashless policy reduced cash-based transactions in Nigeria? 2) to what extent
    has the cashless policy contributed in the development and modernization of the payment
    system in Nigeria? 3) how has the cashless policy helped to trim down the volume of cash
    outside the formal sector in Nigeria?

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  5. Perceived Effect of the Cashless Policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria on improvement of the Payment System
    in Nigeria

    1.4. Research Hypotheses
    The following hypotheses have been stated to guide the work: 1) The cashless policy has
    significantly reduced cash-based transactions in Nigeria; 2) The cashless policy has
    significantly contributed to the development and modernization of the payment system in
    Nigeria; 3) The cashless policy has significantly reduced the volume of cash outside the
    formal sector in Nigeria.

    2. REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
    2.1. Conceptual Framework
    Concepts examined in this study include development of the exchange system, the evolution
    of the payment system, the advent of the modern monetary economy and finally, the present
    cashless economy. In the early days of man, the society was not very ordered and people‟s
    dwellings were relatively in isolated pockets. Locked onto themselves as it were, they found it
    very cumbersome meeting some of their needs that could not be met from supplies within
    their immediate environments. A need to reach out to other similar communities in other
    distant isolated places arose as this would be the only way to source the items of need not
    available within their own immediate environment. Thus, a casual system of markets began
    and people who needed one thing would have to go to other communities carrying with them
    the things they had in abundance to see if, perhaps, someone from the other community would
    need them and at the same time have for exchange some of the items they themselves did not
    have. This was how the barter economy started.
    Today, economists agree that the origin and evolution of money is connected with trade as
    a necessary aspect of the affairs of man. For instance, Adam Smith (1776) strongly associates
    the origin of money as a means of exchange and measure of value with the intrinsic human
    nature since no one is in himself a reservoir of everything he may need in life. It follows that
    by cooperating with one another in the form of trade and exchange, he fulfills the need he
    cannot provide for himself on his own.
    Given the challenges of the barter system, alternative forms of exchange came to be. The
    complexity of exact coincidence of wants rubbished the barter system and brought out the
    centrality of money in a market economy. As humans evolve, the economic systems became
    more complex and volatile. Risk components of transactions grow with the size and
    dimensions of transactions making the use of cash as the primary medium of exchange and
    store of value as well as standard for deferred payment difficult to come by at reasonable cost
    and risk premium. Little wonder there has to evolve the present digitalization of medium of
    exchange.

    2.2. Theoretical Framework
    Historically, aside the barter system which was a co-exchange of items on a condition of
    mutual coincidence of wants for transactions settlements, many items have served as money
    irrespective of what the constituents of the money may be. Money performs three basic
    functions in any economy: as a medium of exchange, a unit of account and a store of value
    (Mankiwa, 1999). The relative ease and convenience of any item in performing these
    functions determines the relative longevity of the substance in the service of the society as
    money for transactions settlements.
    2.2.1. Keyne’s Theory on Motives for Holding Cash Balances
    In his revolutionary book, General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, John
    Maynard Keynes(1936) popularly called Lord Keynes proposed three major motives for
    holding money balances. He categorized these motives into three: transactionary motive,

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  6. Dr Robinson O. Ugwoke, Maureen Okafor and Vivian, O. Ugwoke

    precautionary motive and speculative motive. While the transactionary motive reflects the
    cash-holding intentions for meeting routine cash requirements for financing incidental
    transactions, the precautionary motive, is the need to meet unforeseen and unpredictable
    contingencies. According to Keynes, a third reason is for meeting speculative motives. This
    motive perhaps points to those who invest in stocks and bond and who gamble. Recently, a
    forth motive has been canvassed. The Compensation Motive is traced to an anonymous
    scholar who argued that for businesses and individuals with outstanding bank loans, the need
    to be sufficiently liquid to be able to services the interest, commission and other fees from
    these loans. Nowadays, banks require their customers to maintain certain minimum balances
    to enable them service their maturing service charges. Such balances are termed as
    compensating balances.

    2.3. Empirical Review
    Ikpefan, Akpan, Godswill, Grace & Chisom (2018) carried out a study that determined the
    impact of electronic banking tools on cashless policy in Nigeria for a ten year period which
    spans from 2006 to 2015. The ordinary least square method was used to analyze the data
    which was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Annual Report and the Nigerian
    Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS) website. The study revealed that there was no
    significant impact of electronic banking tools on the currency in circulation and recommended
    inter alia that transaction charges should be further reviewed to a little (single digit) or no
    charge, to encourage more patronage of e-payment platforms.
    Ezuwore, Eyisi, Emengini & Alio (2014) did a structured questionnaire based study on
    banks in Enugu Metropolis and found out that the cashless system has become necessary to
    promote the use of electronic means of transaction towards making Nigeria a cashless
    economy in the nearest future, where clumsy and expensive-to-handle coins and notes are
    replaced by efficient electronic payments system. According to Bayero (2014), awareness,
    consumer/user value proposition, and infrastructure have strong significant relationship with
    financial inclusion while business model of financial service providers do not have any
    significant relationship with financial inclusion.
    Matthew & Mike (2016) appraised the performance of Nigerian banking industry with a
    view to investigate the possible challenges and benefits which it poses to the Nigerian
    economy. Data utilized were sourced from the published annual reports of sampled banks.
    The study employed the t-test analytical technique to test whether there was a significant
    difference in the performance of bank in Nigeria before and after the adoption of the cashless
    policy. The study revealed that though the cashless policy is not a policy designed to enhance
    bank profitability but it has a lot of benefits associated with it which include; increased
    convenience; reduced risk of cash related crimes; reduced cash handling cost, reduced
    revenue leakages among others. It also revealed that its challenges include infrastructural
    deficits, erratic power supply, prevalence of e-fraud, high illiteracy level among others. It was
    also recommended that the Federal Government of Nigeria and the Central Bank of Nigeria
    should synchronize their efforts in ensuring cyber-safety.
    Taiwo, Ayo, Afieroho & Agwu (2012) appraised the implementation of the cashless
    policy since its introduction into the Nigerian financial system in 2012 and also examined the
    persistent challenges facing its implementation. Using primary data sourced through a survey,
    they found that despite the need to operate cashless transactions, the cashless policy will have
    the desired impact only if much effort is put into its implementation. Omotunde, Sunday &
    John-Dewole (2013) examined the impact of the cashless economy on Nigeria‟s economy.
    And found that cashless policy will increase employment; reduce cash related robbery thereby
    reducing risk of carrying cash; reduce cash related corruption and attract more foreign

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  7. Perceived Effect of the Cashless Policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria on improvement of the Payment System
    in Nigeria

    investors to the country. According to Alao & Sorinola (2015) cashless policy contributed
    significantly to customers‟ satisfaction in Ogun State in Nigeria being customer friendly and
    progressive. Chison & Mike (2018) examined the effect of cashless policy on bank
    profitability using the Ordinary Least Square multiple regression analysis and found a
    significant positive correlation between the adoption of cashless policy and commercial bank
    profitability in Nigeria. Omotunde, Sunday & John-Dewole (2013) did a similar study that
    revealed that cashless policy will lead to the modernization of Nigeria payment system among
    others.
    Okey (2012) and Osazevbaru & Yomere (2015) differently examined the benefits and
    challenges of Nigeria‟s cash-less policy and concluded that the cash-less policy offers
    immense benefits to the banking sector but that the CBN needs to put adequate security
    mechanisms in place to forestall fraudulent practices. Again, according to Ernest & Fadiya
    (2012) and Acha, Kanu & Agu (2017) many factors still militate against this policy‟s success
    in Nigeria. Hence closely aligning with Ewa & Inah (2016) to the effect that vigorous
    investments on cyber security, strengthening of internet protocol and controls in the banks and
    enactment of relevant legislative laws to curb cybercrimes are necessary for the success of
    cashless policy in Nigeria. Other notable researchers in this field include: Gresvik & Owre
    (2002) Gresvik & Owre (2002) in Norway; Olajide (2012), Morufu & Taibat (2012),
    Akhalumeh & Ohiokha (2012), Tajudeen (2013) and Aderiyike et al (2015) in Nigeria;
    Elizbeth (2014) in South Africa; Azeez (2014) in Egypt; Thomas (2014) in Uganda; Tambo
    (2015) in Angola; Mabinda (2016) in Kenya; Essien (2016) in Ghana; and Mirdala (2009) in
    selected EMU Countries; Bernanke, Gertler & Gilchrist, (1999) in USA; all pointing to huge
    advantages of cashless policy to the modernization of payment systems and reduction in
    payment related corruption practices.

    2.4. Summary of Literature and Gap
    The literature review showed that there appears to be agreement from most of the contributors
    that embracing cashless payment system has relative advantages over the cash dominated
    systems in terms of transaction cost reduction, time saving and blocking corrupt activating in
    the system (Morufu & Taibat, 2012; Akhalumeh & Ohiokha, 2012; Olajide, 2012; Alabadan,
    2014 and Okonji, 2015 among others). These contributors particularly highlighted that
    significant progress has been made in the implementation of the cashless policy project
    showing major assessment statistics which indicate that considerable milestones have been
    achieved in the project implementation phase since 2012. But some other authors differ
    (Humphrey et al 1996 and Egwali, 2008). However, none of the studies investigated how the
    subject affects interest rate movements. The cost of cash management in Nigeria has also
    remained very high and interest rate appears to have an inverse relationship with the cashless
    policy in Nigeria as it has increased from average of 23.79% in 2012 to about 26% today.
    These and some other cognate factors leave much room for inquiry and this study was
    conceived to make the effort at bridging this gap.

    3. METHODOLOGY
    The study adopted a survey design (Oyetade & Ofoelue, 2012). Primary source of data were
    sourced through the use of questionnaire. Variables considered were cashless policy
    (Independent variable); and cash based transactions; modernization of payment system; and
    volume of cash outside the formal economy (Dependent variables).

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  8. Dr Robinson O. Ugwoke, Maureen Okafor and Vivian, O. Ugwoke

    3.1. Population of the Study
    The study selected the three most active branches of four most active banks in Enugu
    metropolis; First Bank, UBA, Access Bank and Fidelity Bank. The population of the
    respondents from these branches is 642.

    3.2. Sample Size Determination
    From the available population, the sample size was determined using the Taro Yameni finite
    population formula thus:
    n = N / 1 + N (e) 2 where n = Sample Size; N = Population (642); and e = limit of
    tolerable error (5%); n = N / 1 + N (e) 2 ⁼ 642/ 1 + 642(0.05)2 = 642/ 2.507 n = 246
    Therefore, the sample size is 246
    Using the bank‟s population as a basis for determining each bank and each branch sample
    size, we have a distribution table below.

    Table 1. Final Sample Size for the Banks and their branches
    S/N Bank Branch Population
    1 FBN Enugu Main Branch 46
    2 Zik‟s Avenue Branch 24
    3 New Haven Branch 18
    1 Access Bank Garden Avenue Branch 22
    2 Ogui Road Branch 15
    3 Agbani Road Branch 13
    1 FB Ranger‟s Avenue Branch 24
    3 Okpara Avenue Branch 11
    3 Trans Ekulu 11
    1 UBA Station Road Branch 26
    2 Okpara Avenue Branch 19
    3 Trans Ekulu 17
    Total 246
    Source: Field Survey, 2019

    3.3. Instrument of data collection and Validation
    The instrument of data collection was a simple structured questionnaire which was organized
    around the key issues in the study objectives. The method of questioning used is the semantic
    differentials such as “Strongly Agree (SA), Agree (A), Undecided (UD), Disagree (D) and
    Strongly Disagree (SD)”. The questionnaire was validated at two stages using a pilot group
    two experts (Professors in the field). The study adopted the Cronbach Alpha approach to test
    the reliability of the study instrument. This approach yielded an index of 0.82 which implies
    that the instrument was reliable to the tune of 82%.

    3.4. Method of Data Analysis
    This study employed an econometric model involving the Pearson Product Moment
    Correlation Coefficient specified as:
    CBT = f(CP)…………………………………………………………………………….. (i)
    MPS = f(CP)……………………………………………………………………………. (ii)
    VOC = f(CP)……………………………………………………………………………. (iii)

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  9. Perceived Effect of the Cashless Policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria on improvement of the Payment System
    in Nigeria

    Where: CP = Cashless policy (independent variable)
    CBT = Cash-based Transactions (dependent variable for hypothesis one)
    MPS = Modernization of Payment System (dependent variable for hypothesis two)
    VOC = Volume of Cash (dependent variable for hypothesis three)
    4. Presentation of Result s and Analysis

    4.1. Presentation of Results
    Out of a total number of 246 copies of the questionnaire distributed only 204 representing
    82.9% were correctly filled and returned.

    Table 2: Response Rate in Each of the Sampled Segments
    Segments No of copies of the No Successfully No Response/Success
    questionnaire filled Incomplete rate
    FBN 88 74 14 84.1
    Access bank 50 42 8 84.0
    First bank 46 40 6 87.0
    UBA 62 48 14 77.4
    TOTAL 246 204 42 82.9
    Source: Field Survey, 2019
    4.1.1. The Extent to Which the Cashless Policy Has Reduced Cash-Based Transactions in
    Nigeria

    Table 3:Perception of the Staff on the Extent to Which the Cashless Policy Has Reduced Cash-Based
    Transactions in Nigeria
    VARIABLES SA A UD D SD Mean S.D.
    1.There has really been a significant rise in the number of bank transactions 42 50 – 48 64 2.8 0.5
    routed through electronic payment channels.
    2.The rise in the use of electronic channels of settlement would have equally 62 38 – 70 34 3.1 1.0
    happened even if the CBN did not introduce the cashless policy measure.
    3.The major factors behind the changing pattern of transactions settlement is 58 56 8 56 26 3.3 1.0
    to be found in the global internet technology revolutions instead.
    4.Would you credit the rise in the use of alternative (electronic) transactions 55 40 5 60 44 3.0 0.9
    channels to the CBN cashless policy intervention?
    5.The trends in settlement channels reflects guided movements from cash 60 44 – 70 30 3.2 1.2
    based to electronics based systems indicating effectiveness of intervention
    policies of the CBN.
    6.The tendency that transactions channels were moving towards the digital 44 42 – 68 50 2.8 0.4
    side was already very strong prior to the introduction of the cashless polity in
    2012
    7.There is no significant difference between the strength of IT based 50 52 – 54 48 3.0 1.0
    transactions before and during the implementation of cashless policy in 2012.
    8.Even though transactions settlements were already drifting towards the 61 43 6 54 48 3.2 0.1
    digital side, CBN‟s cashless policy intervention created the needed
    momentum in that direction.
    9.The cashless policy helped alley the fears of people about the safety of 74 42 – 66 22 3.4 0.6
    digital channels thus helping increase transaction footprint in that direction
    thus reducing cash based transactions.
    10.It is incontrovertible that the formal introduction of the cashless policy 44 60 – 68 32 3.1 1.1
    reduced volume of cash-based transactions as it created significant leap in
    digital transactions volume after its introduction in 2012.
    Source: Researcher‟s Analysis, 2019.
    Decision rule: (i) Mean score > 2.5 means that the item should be accepted
    (ii) Mean score < 2.5 means that the item should not be accepted

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  10. Dr Robinson O. Ugwoke, Maureen Okafor and Vivian, O. Ugwoke

    The results from table 3 shows that the respondents perceive the Cashless Policy as having
    reduced cash based transactions in Nigeria as they recorded above the mean score of 2.5 in
    each of the questions raised thereto.
    4.1.2. The Extent to Which the Cashless Policy Has Contributed To the Development and
    Modernization of the Payment System in Nigeria.

    Table 4: Perception of the Staff on the Extent to Which the Cashless Policy Has Contributed To the
    Development and Modernization of the Payment System in Nigeria.
    VARIABLES SA A UD D SD Mean S.D.
    11.One area the cashless policy has helped in no small measure is in 55 60 – 44 45 3.2 1.0
    the modernization of the payment system in line with global
    standards.
    12.International business channels for Nigeria has flung open since 68 54 8 22 52 3.3 1.0
    payment for transactions has become modernized.
    13.It has aligned domestic transactions with global standards of 45 68 – 51 40 3.1 0.7
    competition; reduced cost of cash management for firms and
    enhanced their margins thus making them more competitive.
    14.The risk component of business transactions has generally reduced 45 50 8 40 61 2.9 1.1
    due to introduction of the cashless policy which has encouraged
    digital payments.
    15.It helped reduce fraud in the financial system since it ensures that 48 64 4 50 38 3.2 0.8
    transactions are digitally recorded and traceable.
    16.One crippling problem with the cash payment system was the 40 52 – 64 48 2.9 1.0
    encouragement of a parallel economy in the informal sector which
    diluted monetary regulatory policies thus weakening the Naira.
    17.The increasing ease of reach of the domestic economy to distant 44 50 10 40 60 2.9 1.0
    and far flung markets is a testament to the modernizing effects of the
    cashless policy.
    18.The cost of printing new notes due to high frequency in the use of 68 44 – 42 50 3.2 0.7
    cash has reduced since large ticket transactions now do not involve
    cash thus preserving the notes for longer time.
    19.More expatriate companies have opened in the country since 38 62 6 58 40 3.0 0.5
    implementing this policy because of ease of transacting on global
    scale for Nigeria‟s market.
    20.Nigerian international trade has spiralled since 2012 owing to the 50 55 6 45 48 3.1 1.4
    reduction of transaction costs due to the implementation of cashless
    policy by the CBN.
    Source: Researcher‟s Analysis, 2018.
    Decision rule: (i) Mean score > 2.5 means that the item should be accepted
    (ii) Mean score < 2.5 means that the item should not be accepted
    The table 4 above shows that the respondents agree that the Cashless Policy has
    contributed to the development and modernization of the Payment System in Nigeria since all
    the ten (10) items received a mean score of more than 2.5
    4.1.3. The Extent to Which the Cashless Policy has helped to Trim down the Volume of
    Cash Outside the Formal Sector in Nigeria.

    Table 5: Perception of the Staff on the Extent to Which the Cashless Policy Has Helped To Trim
    down The Volume Of Cash Outside The Formal Sector In Nigeria in Nigeria.
    VARIABLES SA A UD D SD Mean S.D.
    21.The policy significantly helped to reduce the volume of cash 44 52 – 48 60 2.9 0.6
    outside the formal system.
    22.Traders and business men who used to carry bags of cash around 52 46 10 58 38 3.1 1.1
    transact through the alternative payment channels hence reducing the
    amount of cash in circulation.

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  11. Perceived Effect of the Cashless Policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria on improvement of the Payment System
    in Nigeria

    23.The policy opened people eyes to the risks associated with cash 56 61 – 31 56 3.2 1.7
    payment in large volumes triggering a response which encourages
    reduced use of cash.
    24.There has been steady rise in on-line trading and sales activities 55 36 18 40 55 3.0 1.2
    which has also helped in reducing the volume of cash in the informal
    sector.
    25.This policy has nothing to do with the volume of cash in 5 19 – 120 60 2.0 0.4
    circulation generally.
    26.Cash in circulation in the informal sector has not responded to the 54 42 10 46 52 3.0 0.8
    policy.
    27.The volume of cash in the informal sector has continued to 56 42 16 50 40 3.1 0.5
    significantly dilute the monetary policy stance of the CBN by creating
    parallel exchange rate indicating that the policy has yet to make
    significant impact.
    28.There is need to make complementary monetary policies to check 41 43 – 51 69 2.7 1.7
    possible cheating and beating of the system to ensure we reap the
    benefits of the policy
    29.There are still huge amounts of cash stacked away in people‟s 74 44 – 56 30 3.4 1.4
    homes and heavy clandestine cash transactions are still flourishing
    across the country.
    30.The policy has caused heavy outflow of liquid capital as Nigerians 54 55 – 53 42 3.1 1.4
    now stash their money away in foreign countries.
    Source: Researcher‟s Analysis, 2019.
    Decision rule: (i) Mean score > 2.5 means that the item should be accepted
    (ii) Mean score < 2.5 means that the item should not be accepted
    The results from the table 5 show that the respondents perceive the Cashless Policy as
    having helped to trim down the volume of cash outside the formal sector of the Nigerian
    economy. This is evidenced by the mean score greater than 2.5 in nine (9) out of the ten (10)
    variables stated. However, it also revealed the respondents perception that the policy has
    nothing to do with the volume of cash in circulation (the value of the mean of each of the
    variables was lesser than 2.5).

    4.2. Analysis of Findings and Test of Research Hypotheses
    Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (r) was used to test the hypotheses.
    4.2.1. Test of Hypotheses 1
    H0: The cashless policy has not significantly reduced cash-based transactions in Nigeria.
    H1: The cashless policy has significantly reduced cash-based transactions in Nigeria.
    Data generated from responses to question 1 – 10 in the questionnaire were used.
    Preliminary analyses were performed to ensure no violation of the assumptions of normality,
    linearity and homoscedascity. The goal was to determine if the cashless policy has
    significantly reduced cash-based transactions in Nigeria using Pearson product moment
    correlation coefficient.
    Table 6: Correlation Test for Hypothesis 1
    CASH BASED
    CASHLESS POLICY TRANSACTION
    CASHLESS POLICY Pearson Correlation 1 .676 **
    Sig. (2-tailed) .05
    N 204 204
    CASH BASED Pearson Correlation .676** 1
    TRANSACTION Sig. (2-tailed) .05
    N 204 204
    ** Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (1-tailed).
    Source: SPSS Analysis, 2018.

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  12. Dr Robinson O. Ugwoke, Maureen Okafor and Vivian, O. Ugwoke

    Result: The result shows that there was a statistically significant positive relationship
    between the cashless policy and the reduction of cash based transactions in Nigeria (i.e. p <
    0.05 @ 0.05 significant level). Again, the strength or magnitude of relationship between the
    cashless policy and the reduction of cash-based transactions is strong (R = .676), while the
    coefficient of determination (R2) is 45.7 %. This explains the variance therein. Furthermore,
    the scatter plot shown in the Appendix (Figure 1) corroborates this result. On the basis of the
    decision rule which states: reject null hypothesis if p-value is less than 0.05, we reject the null
    hypothesis and accept the alternative form. Therefore we decide that there exists a statistically
    positive relationship between the Cashless Policy of the CBN and the reduction of cash based
    transactions in Nigeria.
    4.2.2. Test of Hypotheses 2
    H0: The cashless policy has not significantly contributed to the development and
    modernization of the payment system in Nigeria.
    H1: The cashless policy has significantly contributed to the development and modernization of
    the payment system in Nigeria.
    The responses to question 11 – 20 in the questionnaire were used. The same preliminary
    analyses done for hypothesis 1 were repeated.

    Table 7: Correlation Test for Hypothesis 2
    PAYMENT
    CASHLESS POLICY SYSTEM
    CASHLESS POLICY Pearson Correlation 1 .614 **
    Sig. (2-tailed) .046
    N 204 204
    PAYMENT SYSTEM Pearson Correlation .614** 1
    Sig. (2-tailed) .046
    N 204 204
    ** Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (1-tailed).
    Source: SPSS Analysis, 2019.
    Result: The result of the Pearson Product Moment Correlation shows that there was a
    statistically significant relationship between the cashless policy and the development and
    modernization of the payment system (i.e. p < 0.05 @ 0.05 significant level). The correlation
    coefficient is 0.6. An increase in the implementation of the cashless policy will result in an
    increase in the development and modernization of the payment system in Nigeria. The
    coefficient of determination (R2) which explained the variance between the cashless policy
    and the development and modernization of the payment system indicates 37.7% shared
    variance. This implies that the cashless policy has significantly contributed to the
    development and modernization of the payment system in Nigeria by nearly 38%.
    Furthermore, the scatter plot Figure 2 Appendix 2 corroborates this finding. With a p-value of
    less than 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternate. We therefore conclude
    that the Cashless policy has significantly contributed to the development and modernization
    of the payment system in Nigeria.
    4.2.3. Test of Hypotheses 3
    H0: The cashless policy has not significantly helped to trim down the volume of cash outside
    the formal sector in Nigeria.
    H1: The cashless policy has not significantly helped to trim down the volume of cash outside
    the formal sector in Nigeria.

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  13. Perceived Effect of the Cashless Policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria on improvement of the Payment System
    in Nigeria

    The responses to question 21 – 30 in the questionnaire were used. Preliminary analyses were
    equally performed and they yielded the same results as in the two previous hypotheses.

    Table 8: Correlation Test for Hypothesis 3
    CASHLESS POLICY VOLUME OF CASH
    CASHLESS POLICY Pearson Correlation 1 .565 **
    Sig. (2-tailed) .008
    N 204 204
    VOLUME OF CASH Pearson Correlation .565** 1
    Sig. (2-tailed) .008
    N 204 204
    ** Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (1-tailed).
    Source: SPSS Analysis, 2019.
    Result: The result of the Pearson Product Moment Correlation shows that there was a
    statistically significant relationship between the cashless policy and volume of cash outside
    the formal sector (i.e. p < 0.05 @ 0.05 significant level). It also indicates that the relationship
    between the cashless policy and the volume of cash outside the formal sector is positive (i.e.
    the cashless policy helps to trim down the volume of cash outside the formal sector in
    Nigeria). In conclusion, the result of the analysis indicates that the strength or magnitude of
    relationship between the cashless policy and trimming down of the volume of cash outside the
    formal sector is strong (R = .565).
    In addition, the coefficient of determination (R2) is 31.9% percent. This implies that the
    cashless policy has significantly contributed to the trimming down of the volume of cash
    outside the formal sector in Nigeria by nearly 32%. Furthermore, the scatter plot shown in
    Fig.3 of the Appendix corroborates this result by indicating that the relationship between the
    cashless policy and trimming down of the volume of cash outside the formal sector as being
    positive and roughly linear. With p-value of 0.05 the null hypothesis is rejected while the
    alternate is accepted. We conclude that the cashless policy has significantly helped to trim
    down the volume of cash outside the formal sector in Nigeria.

    4.7. Discussion of Results
    1. The result of the test of hypothesis 1 indicated that there was a statistically significant
    relationship between the cashless policy and the reduction of cash based transactions in
    Nigeria. Thus the cashless policy has significantly reduced cash based transactions in Nigeria
    by nearly 46%. This finding is consistent with that of Ezuwore, Eyisi, Emengini & Alio
    (2014) and Matthew & Mike (2016) which revealed that the cashless system has become
    necessary to promote the use of electronic means of transaction towards making Nigeria a
    cashless economy in the nearest future, where clumsy and expensive-to-handle coins and
    notes are replaced by efficient electronic payments system; and although the cashless policy is
    not a policy designed to enhance bank profitability, it has a lot of benefits associated with it
    which include; increased convenience; reduced risk of cash related crimes; reduced cash
    handling cost, reduced revenue leakages, etc. respectively. But at the same time, it contradicts
    Ikpefan, Akpan, Godswill, Grace & Chisom (2018) who stated that there was no significant
    impact of electronic banking tools on the currency in circulation. In any case our position is
    that since only 46% reduction noticed, the cashless policy will have the desired impact only if
    concerted efforts are made by the CBN to ensure improved implementation as also suggested
    by Taiwo, Ayo, Afieroho & Agwu (2012).
    2. There was a statistically significant relationship between the cashless policy and the
    development and modernization of the payment system in Nigeria as found through analysis

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  14. Dr Robinson O. Ugwoke, Maureen Okafor and Vivian, O. Ugwoke

    of the second hypothesis. This finding is consistent with that of Omotunde, Sunday & John-
    Dewole (2013) who revealed that the introduction of the cashless economy in Nigeria is a step
    in the right direction as its impact will be felt in the modernization of Nigeria payment
    system, reduction in the cost of banking services, reduction in high security and safety risks
    and also curb banking related corruptions.The findings of Morefu & Taibet (2012) also finds
    resonance with this. It also agrees with the study of Elizbeth (2014) who revealed that South
    Africa is now at the verge of achieving a digital freedom in payments as about 52% of all
    payment in the country now pass through the alternative payment channels.
    3. From hypothesis three, the result of the test of hypothesis indicated that there was a
    statistically significant relationship between the cashless policy and the trimming down of the
    volume of cash outside the formal sector in Nigeria (R = .565, alpha-significance is .008 at p
    < 0.05). In addition, it revealed that the cashless policy has significantly contributed to the
    trimming down of the volume of cash outside the formal sector in Nigeria by nearly 32%.
    This finding can be supported with that Mabinda (2012), Tambo (2015) and Azeez (2014)
    who revealed that there was a significant effect of cash management policies on volume of
    cash-based transactions. In addition, it agrees with the study of Ernest & Fadiya (2012) who
    posited that the shift towards a cashless Nigeria seems to be beneficial though it comes with
    high level of concerns bordering on security and management of cost savings. It also agrees
    with the finding of Azeez (2014) who stated that there was a significant positive effect
    between the cashless policy and cash management policies on the payment system of Egypt.
    4. The implications of the findings from this objective can be explained with the findings of
    Acha, Kanu & Agu (2017) who revealed that despite several identified benefits of the cashless
    policy, many factors still militate against the policy‟s success such as lack of enabling
    environment especially power infrastructure.

    5. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND
    RECOMMENDATIONS
    5.1. Summary of Findings
     The study revealed that there was a statistically significant relationship between the cashless
    policy and the reduction of cash based transactions in Nigeria (R = .676, alpha-significance is
    .05 at p < 0.05). In addition, it revealed that the cashless policy has significantly reduced cash
    based transactions in Nigeria by nearly 46%.
     The study revealed that there was a statistically significant relationship between the cashless
    policy and the development and modernization of the payment system in Nigeria (R = .614,
    alpha-significance is .046 at p < 0.05). In addition, it revealed that the cashless policy has
    significantly contributed to the development and modernization of the payment system in
    Nigeria by nearly 38%.
     The study revealed that there was a statistically significant relationship between the cashless
    policy and the trimming down of the volume of cash outside the formal sector in Nigeria (R =
    .565, alpha-significance is .008 at p < 0.05). In addition, it revealed that the cashless policy
    has significantly contributed to the trimming down of the volume of cash outside the formal
    sector in Nigeria by nearly 32%.

    5.2. Conclusion
    The cashless policy of the CBN has significantly and positively improved exchange and
    payment system in Nigeria as well as reduced drastically the volume of cash in the informal
    sector of the economy including reducing significantly the number of cash based transactions
    in the economy. There was a statistically significant relationship between the cashless policy
    and the reduction of cash based transactions in Nigeria. It also revealed that there was a

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  15. Perceived Effect of the Cashless Policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria on improvement of the Payment System
    in Nigeria

    statistically significant relationship between the cashless policy and the development and
    modernisation of the payment system in Nigeria. Furthermore, it revealed that there was a
    statistically significant relationship between the cashless policy and the trimming down of the
    volume of cash outside the formal sector in Nigeria. Thus, there is sufficient evidence to argue
    that the policy has achieved relevance in the system given that transaction settlements have
    now moved significantly towards the digital channels and the volume of cash in the informal
    system has reduced thus enabling better monitoring and control. However, caution should be
    exercised as there are still significant cash volumes in the informal sector as revealed by the
    study.

    5.3. Recommendations
    The following recommendations are made from this study:
     There is need for a comprehensive review of the policy content as well as its implementations
    strategy. This has become necessary in view of the fact that the informal sector has continued
    to exert very potent force in the system which weakens the strength of monetary policy which
    blurs its thrust.
     The monetary authorities should perhaps, embark on a second phase of the policy which
    should now focus among other things, on capturing all inward remittances from Nigerians in
    diaspora to ensure all such remittances pass through the appropriate formal sector channels as
    this will help regulate and control the Naira- dollar exchange rate and degrade the strength of
    the informal sector in this regard.
     The Central Bank should but a periodic minimum benchmark investment allocation in internet
    banking technology on the banks. Regular technology updates will help to continually block
    avenues for data hacking and account pilfering which has hit an all-time high in this cashless
    policy era.
     There is need to mount more awareness campaign to sensitize people more on the need to go
    cashless. Adopting informal communication media is suggested especially in the rural areas
    and the suburbs. There is also need to further improve the digital clearing system in the
    country. Presently, inter switch is the major service provider in this area and it is obvious it
    has been improving since the early 2000s. However, relative to global standards, we are still
    backwards. The number of failed interbank transactions that take over 7 days to clear and
    correct is too high. For instance, failures-to-pay other banks ATM card withdrawals by any
    bank ATM still takes 14 days to correct indicating room for improvement.
    There is need to expand the internet connectivity of Nigeria as a country since the
    domestic connectivity largely depends on the bandwidth the country maintains at the global
    highway.
    It is suggested that an expanded study should be done to include all the states in Nigeria.

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    APPENDIX
    CORRELATIONS
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    CORRELATIONS
    /VARIABLES=VAR00001
    VAR00002
    Syntax /PRINT=TWOTAIL NOSIG
    /STATISTICS
    DESCRIPTIVES
    /MISSING=PAIRWISE.
    Processor Time 00:00:00.00
    Resources
    Elapsed Time 00:00:00.55
    [DataSet0] Descriptive Statistics
    Mean Std. Deviation N
    CASHLESS POLICY 40.8000 22.65392 204
    CASH BASED
    37.2000 25.40079 204
    TRANSACTIONS

    Correlations
    CASHLESS CASH BASED
    POLICY TRANSACTIO
    NS
    Pearson Correlation 1 .676
    CASHLESS POLICY Sig. (2-tailed) .052
    N 204 204
    Pearson Correlation .676 1
    CASH BASED
    Sig. (2-tailed) .052
    TRANSACTIONS
    N 204 204

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  19. Perceived Effect of the Cashless Policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria on improvement of the Payment System
    in Nigeria

    GRAPH
    /SCATTERPLOT(BIVAR)=VAR00002 WITH VAR00001
    /MISSING=LISTWISE.

    Graph
    Notes
    Output Created 26-JUN-2019 00:49:05
    Comments
    Active Dataset DataSet0
    Filter
    Weight
    Input
    Split File
    N of Rows in Working Data
    204
    File
    GRAPH

    Syntax /SCATTERPLOT(BIVAR)=V
    AR00002 WITH VAR00001
    /MISSING=LISTWISE.
    Processor Time 00:00:00.36
    Resources
    Elapsed Time 00:00:00.44
    [DataSet0]

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  20. Dr Robinson O. Ugwoke, Maureen Okafor and Vivian, O. Ugwoke

    CORRELATIONS
    /VARIABLES=VAR00003 VAR00004
    /PRINT=TWOTAIL NOSIG
    /STATISTICS DESCRIPTIVES
    /MISSING=PAIRWISE.

    Correlations
    Notes
    Output Created 26-JUN-2019 00:49:29
    Comments
    Active Dataset DataSet0
    Filter
    Weight
    Input
    Split File
    N of Rows in Working Data
    204
    File
    User-defined missing values
    Definition of Missing
    are treated as missing.
    Statistics for each pair of
    Missing Value Handling
    variables are based on all the
    Cases Used
    cases with valid data for that
    pair.
    CORRELATIONS
    /VARIABLES=VAR00003
    VAR00004
    Syntax /PRINT=TWOTAIL NOSIG
    /STATISTICS
    DESCRIPTIVES
    /MISSING=PAIRWISE.
    Processor Time 00:00:00.00
    Resources
    Elapsed Time 00:00:00.11
    [DataSet0] Descriptive Statistics
    Mean Std. Deviation N
    CASHLESS POLICY 40.8000 24.84351 204
    MODERNIZATION OF
    40.8000 25.00400 204
    PAYMENT SYSTEM

    Correlations
    CASHLESS MODERNIZA
    POLICY TION OF
    PAYMENT
    SYSTEM
    Pearson Correlation 1 .614*
    CASHLESS POLICY Sig. (2-tailed) .046
    N 204 204
    *
    Pearson Correlation .614 1
    MODERNIZATION OF
    Sig. (2-tailed) .046
    PAYMENT SYSTEM
    N 204 204

    *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

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