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Instruments of monetary and credit policy in terms of economic instability
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The article considers the problems of monetary-and-credit policy in the conditions of economic instability. The banking structure, with a detailed description of each component, is considered.

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  1. International Journal of Management (IJM)
    Volume 11, Issue 5, May 2020, pp. 43-53, Article ID: IJM_11_05_005
    Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/ijm/issues.asp?JType=IJM&VType=11&IType=5
    Journal Impact Factor (2020): 10.1471 (Calculated by GISI) www.jifactor.com
    ISSN Print: 0976-6502 and ISSN Online: 0976-6510
    DOI: 10.34218/IJM.11.5.2020.005

    © IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed

    INSTRUMENTS OF MONETARY-AND-CREDIT
    POLICY IN TERMS OF ECONOMIC
    INSTABILITY
    Viktoriya Marhasova
    Department of Accounting, Taxation and Audit,
    Chernihiv National University of Technology, Chernihiv, Ukraine

    Yuliia Kovalenko
    Department of Financial Markets,
    University of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine, Irpin, Ukraine

    Olena Bereslavska
    Department of Banking and Financial Monitoring,
    State Fiscal Service of Ukraine, Irpin, Ukraine

    Oleksii Muravskyi
    Department of Banking and Insurance,
    National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

    Maiia Fedyshyn
    Department of Public, Corporate Finances and Financial Mediation,
    Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University, Chernivtsi, Ukraine

    Olga Kolesnik
    Department of Finance, Banking and Insurance,
    Odessa I.I. Mechnikov National University, Odessa, Ukraine

    ABSTRACT
    The article considers the problems of monetary-and-credit policy in the conditions
    of economic instability. The banking structure, with a detailed description of each
    component, is considered. Monetary-and-credit policy methods and instruments have
    been classified. The peculiarities of monetary regulation of the domestic economy in
    the context of transformation processes are characterized. The features and objectives
    of the monetary policy of the central bank are classified and described in detail. The
    use of reserve requirements in transition economies is considered. Revealed and
    substantiated the main threats to the monetary security of Ukraine. The factors
    limiting monetary policy are revealed. The substantiated need for modernization of

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  2. Instruments of Monetary-and-Credit Policy in Terms of Economic Instability

    available instruments of monetary policy of Ukraine in the conditions of market
    restrictions in the domestic and foreign markets and identified alternative instruments
    of influence on economic growth available to the NBU.
    Keywords: Bank, Economic Instability, Instruments, Monetary-and-credit Policy
    Cite this Article: Viktoriya Marhasova, Yuliia Kovalenko, Olena Bereslavska,
    Oleksii Muravskyi, Maiia Fedyshyn, Olga Kolesnik, Instruments of Monetary-and-
    Credit Policy in Terms of Economic Instability, International Journal of Management,
    11 (5), 2020, pp. 43-53.
    http://www.iaeme.com/IJM/issues.asp?JType=IJM&VType=11&IType=5

    1. INTRODUCTION
    The basis for the effective functioning of the financial system in the national economy is such
    monetary policy parameters that allow for economic growth. There were widely known
    examples when the state achieved acceptable rates of development of the national economy
    due to an efficiently built system of state economic and monetary policy (flexible and well-
    thought-out policy of regulators, a competitive and robust banking system, stimulating
    interest rates). In contrast, the opposite examples (economic growth “contrary to” state policy)
    is sporadic [1-5].
    The economic policy of the state, an integral element of which is monetary policy, is an
    essential factor in the formation and functioning of a developed economy. Competent
    monetary policy is a prerequisite for sustainable economic development. In fact, it is an
    element of infrastructure, a “necessary but not sufficient” growth factor [6-8]. The direct
    drivers of economic development are the actions of commercial agents, investment processes,
    innovative solutions, but without an environment formed by monetary regulation, sustainable
    development is impossible. The primary recipient of monetary regulation is the banking
    system, through which, and through which, the Central Bank exercises its management.
    New realities in the domestic market and international commodity and financial markets
    are pushing the central banks of the countries of the world to look for new approaches in
    monetary policy, to rethink the established ideas about the goals and functions of regulation.

    2. MONETARY-AND-CREDIT OF UKRAINE
    Central Bank – an institution (mainly a government body) that regulates the activities of
    banks in a country pursues monetary (monetary) and exchange rate policies of the state (US
    Federal Reserve) or the community of nations (European Central Bank). In Ukraine, it is the
    National Bank of Ukraine.
    The central bank may perform (depending on the country) the following functions:
     banking regulation and supervision (ensuring the stability of the banking system),
     formation and implementation of the monetary policy of the state,
     management of money supply, which also includes a monopoly right to issue money,
     the creation and implementation of exchange rate policies, including, where
    appropriate, monetary interventions
     management of the country’s gold and currency reserves,
     keeping accounts for interbank payments.
    When it is changed vital rates, the interest rate is reduced to commercial value. There is a
    decrease in bank deposits and a decrease in deposits to customers. The Affordable Guide will

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  3. Viktoriya Marhasova, Yuliia Kovalenko, Olena Bereslavska, Oleksii Muravskyi,
    Maiia Fedyshyn, Olga Kolesnik

    help you open the door to customer loyalty and give you the right way to get in touch with
    your organization.
    Monetary-and-credit policy is an integral part of state economic policy and is
    implemented by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
    The banking system of Ukraine is a component of the state’s economic system, which
    includes the National Bank of Ukraine; other banks (residents and non-residents registered in
    accordance with the procedure established by law in the territory of Ukraine); non-bank
    financial institutions, the sole activity of which is to accept deposits, make loans or maintain
    accounts with clients; Private Deposit Guarantee Fund; banking infrastructure, and the
    relationships and relationships between them [9-11]. Today, the banking system of Ukraine is
    one of the most developed elements of the economic mechanism, since its reform was started
    earlier than other sectors of the economy, which was determined by the critical role of banks
    in solving the problems of transition to the market.
    The banking system of Ukraine, in general, is presented in Fig. 1.

    First
    NATIONAL BANK OF UKRAINE
    level

    Private equity
    Second State-owned
    banks (not less
    level banks (in which Banks of foreign
    than 50% of
    the state holds banking groups
    the authorized
    more than 75%)
    capital)

    Banking Associations
    (Banking Corporation, Banking Holding Group, Financial Holding Group)

    Depending on the Depending on the degree of dependency Depending on
    composition of participants: and subordination of individual structures: unification goals:
    – association of mixed type; – corporate (trusts, concerns); – commercial type;
    – purely banking association. – associative (consortia, cartels). – non-commercial
    type.
    Figure 1 Structure of the banking system of Ukraine
    The banking system of Ukraine has a high level of segmentation. Each December, the
    National Bank of Ukraine approves the division of banks into groups for the following year,
    since 2017, the classification is valid only based on ownership (Table 1). In general, the
    banking system of Ukraine is characterized by a high level of competition and has potential
    for development.

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  4. Instruments of Monetary-and-Credit Policy in Terms of Economic Instability

    Table 1 Structure of the banking system of Ukraine in terms of groups of banks by assets
    Groups of banks 2018 2019
    State-owned banks (in which the state holds more than 75%) 6 5
    Banks of foreign banking groups 25 21
    Private equity banks (not less than 50% of the authorized capital) 63 51

    As of December 2019, 75 banks were operating in the country (Fig. 2), including:
     banks with foreign capital – 36 (including 23 – with 100% foreign capital);
     state-owned banks – 6.
    As of April 30, 2019, 88 banks are in liquidation.

    184 182 180
    175 176 176 176
    163

    120

    96
    78

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019

    Figure 2 Number of banks in Ukraine by years
    To find out the role of monetary policy in a market economy, it is essential to understand
    the tasks that are set by monetary authorities and are solved by monetary methods. These
    objectives are commonly referred to as monetary policy goals. In general, they can be divided
    into three groups: strategic, intermediate, tactical (Fig. 3).

    Current goals of Intermediate tactical The ultimate strategic
    Central Bank Tools
    regulation objectives goals of monetary policy

    1. The discount rate. 1. Economic growth.
    1. Changing the 1. The value of the
    2. Minimum reserve 2. Employment of the
    monetary base. money supply.
    requirements. population.
    2. Changing the 2. The level of
    3. Open market 3. Price stability.
    terms of the loan. interest rates.
    operations. 4. Balance of payments.

    Figure 3 Classification of central bank monetary policy goals and instruments
    The strategic goals of the monetary policy of the central bank should be the ultimate goals
    of the economic system of the state, achievement of such economic growth, which will ensure
    high employment of the population, price stability and exchange rate of the currency. The

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  5. Viktoriya Marhasova, Yuliia Kovalenko, Olena Bereslavska, Oleksii Muravskyi,
    Maiia Fedyshyn, Olga Kolesnik

    central bank should help to achieve these goals. He should have no disagreement with the
    government on strategic objectives.
    The well-being of the country’s population is closely linked to employment rates. The
    output is achieved in the context of low inflation, that is, informally unstable prices.

    3. INSTRUMENTS OF MONETARY-AND-CREDIT POLICY
    Monetary policy affects the state of the money market (both on money supply and monetary
    demand) and therefore on the economy through the use of appropriate instruments.
    The latter include the administrative, economic, legal and informational levers used by the
    National Bank of Ukraine to maintain equilibrium in the monetary market and ensure
    economic growth (Fig. 4).

    1) interest rate policy

    2) policy for setting and regulating minimum reserve
    requirements for commercial banks

    3) commercial bank refinancing policy
    Monetary-
    and-Credit 4) policy of management of foreign exchange reserves
    Policy
    Tools 5) open market operations policy (operations with valuable
    (Methods): papers, including treasury bills)

    6) exchange rate management policy

    7) regulation of export and import of capital

    8) issue and transactions with their debt.

    Figure 4 Classification of central bank monetary policy goals and instruments

    3.1. Interest Rate Policy
    Interest rate policy is used to improve the means and methods of implementing monetary
    policy in terms of defining interest rates on the operations of the National Bank of Ukraine
    and indicative regulation of banks’ activities.

    3.2. Mandatory Fallback Policy
    In all European countries, reserve requirements were introduced to manage the liquidity of the
    banking system. Nowadays, the more specific goal is to use the required reserves for
    monetary regulation of the long-term problems of stabilizing money circulation and curbing
    inflation. In countries with a stable economy, a high degree of market relations development,
    a highly developed banking system, there is no need to regulate banking activities through
    this mechanism, so the obligatory reserves in the management of the monetary market play a
    minor role. At times when a market economy is emerging in a particular country, there is a
    need to use reserve requirements as a guarantee of the stability of the banking system as a
    whole, which is observed in Ukraine.

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  6. Instruments of Monetary-and-Credit Policy in Terms of Economic Instability

    The use of reserve requirements in transition economies is shown in Table 2.

    Table 2 Reserve requirements functions in transition and developing countries
    Interest rate Regulation of Money supply
    Country Taxation
    buffer liquidity regulation
    Northeast Asia
    Indonesia ● ● ●
    India ● ● ●
    South Korea ● ● ●
    Malaysia ● ● ●
    Singapore ● ●
    Thailand ● ●
    Latin America
    Brazil ● ●
    Chile ●
    Colombia ● ●
    Mexico ● ● ●
    Peru ● ● ●
    Central and Eastern Europe
    Bulgaria ● ● ● ●
    Hungary ● ●
    Latvia ● ● ● ●
    Lithuania ● ● ● ●
    Poland ● ●
    Ukraine ● ● ●
    Slovakia ● ● ●
    Czech Republic ●
    Estonia ●
    Other countries
    Israel ●
    Saudi Arabia ● ● ●
    South Africa ● ● ●

    Table 2 shows that the buffer function in these countries works less efficiently than in
    industrial countries.

    3.3. Refinancing Operations
    Refinancing operations are loans granted by the National Bank of Ukraine as a lender of last
    resort to perform the refinancing function. The National Bank has the right, but not the
    obligation, to provide loans to refinance the bank if it entails risks to the banking system.

    3.4. Management of Gold Reserves
    Management of foreign exchange reserves is a set of measures for the formation of an optimal
    structure of foreign exchange reserves and their rational allocation, carried out by the central
    bank and/or the ministry of finance to maintain foreign exchange reserves at an acceptable
    level for a particular country.

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  7. Viktoriya Marhasova, Yuliia Kovalenko, Olena Bereslavska, Oleksii Muravskyi,
    Maiia Fedyshyn, Olga Kolesnik

    3.5. Open Market Operations
    Open market operations are a tool of the monetary policy of the state, the essence of which is
    the purchase and sale by the central bank of securities on the open market. This tool is used to
    regulate the liquidity of the banking system, influence the level of market interest rates.

    3.6. Currency Market Operations
    Through operations in the foreign exchange market, the central bank can regulate the money
    supply in circulation, while maintaining the corresponding stability of the national currency.
    Acting as a buyer in the foreign exchange market, the central bank issues additional national
    money and buys foreign currency for it, and in the role of a foreign currency seller withdraws
    national currency from circulation.

    3.7. Regulation of Import and Export of Capital
    The National Bank regulates the import and export of capital following the legislation of
    Ukraine on foreign economic activity and the system of currency regulation and currency
    control. The main document based on which it is possible to study the process of regulating
    imports and exports is the balance of payments.

    3.8. Issue of Own Debt Obligations and Operations with them
    The National Bank of Ukraine carries out deposit operations with banks by issuing its debt
    obligations or concluding deposit agreements. The certificate of deposit of the National Bank
    is one of the monetary instruments; it is debt security of the National Bank in non-
    documentary form, which certifies the placement of funds of banks in the National Bank and
    their right to receive the deposited amount and interest after a specified period.

    4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
    Monetary policy in securing economic development is of particular importance in any country
    in the world. Depending on the phase of the economic cycle and the specifics of the
    application of the instruments, two types are distinguished: restriction and expansionist. With
    the economy overheating and the need to stabilize prices, improve the balance of payments,
    restrictive measures are applied, in particular, there is an increase in interest rates to reduce
    lending and slow down business activity. Conversely, in times of economic downturn, interest
    rates are being reduced to stimulate lending and investment activity, economic growth and
    reducing unemployment.
    The NBU Strategy defines that the main goals of the activity are low and stable inflation,
    efficient banking system, resumption of lending and currencies for liberalization, effective
    regulation of the financial sector, free movement of capital, financial inclusion, a modern,
    open and independent central bank. Thus, the National Bank’s policy is aimed at ensuring
    price and financial stability and, as a result, macroeconomic stability. However, the role of the
    central bank is not only to ensure stability but also to stimulate economic growth. Mandatory
    reserve setting, interest rate policy, refinancing, deposit operations, foreign exchange
    interventions, securities transactions form the basis of the central bank’s mechanism for
    influencing money supply, bank activity and the development of the national economy. To
    achieve price stability, the National Bank has been using inflation targeting since 2016. Based
    on the assessment of internal and external development trends, the central bank sets the
    inflation target and is fully responsible for price stability in the country. However, he failed to
    meet inflation targets, due to hostilities in the east, rising wages and tariffs for housing and
    communal services, inflationary expectations of citizens amid constant speculation around
    negotiations with the IMF, currency instability, currency instability -inflationary spiral. In

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  8. Instruments of Monetary-and-Credit Policy in Terms of Economic Instability

    2014, inflation amounted to 24.9%, in 2015 – 43.3% in the context of GDP decline in 2014 by
    6.5% and rising unemployment to 9.3%; in 2015, GDP fell by 9.8%, which is a sign of
    stagflation. All this is against the backdrop of a decline in the level of monetization of the
    economy, which reflects the demand for real money, demonstrates public confidence in the
    national currency and monetary policy. During 2014-2018, the dynamics of this indicator
    showed a decrease, and in 2018 it amounted to 35.8%, while in developed countries it is more
    than 60%. Hryvnia devaluation, increase in the general level of prices, tariffs negatively
    influenced the aggregate demand and led to an additional reduction of GDP in 2014-2015.
    6.0% and 9.8%, respectively. Significant discrepancies between the projected and actual
    inflation rates testify to the National Bank’s inability to control price levels, which threatens
    economic and national security. Considering the dynamics of the discount rate and the
    weighted average of refinancing instruments (Fig. 5), monetary policy can be described as
    rigid, yielding inflation in 2018 from 13.7% to 9.8% and reducing the volatility of the
    exchange rate. course.
    180000
    160000
    140000
    120000
    100000
    80000
    60000
    40000
    20000
    0
    -20000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Discount rate,%
    Average weighted interest rate on all NBU refinancing instruments,%
    Issue of deposit certificates, UAH million
    Refinancing of banks by the National Bank (including direct repo agreement), UAH
    million
    NBU monetary interventions, UAH million: balance

    Figure 5 Dynamics of NBU Individual Monetary Policies for 2010-2018
    On the other hand, we see a decrease in the volume of issuance of deposit certificates and
    an increase in refinancing of banks. Political and economic instability has adversely affected
    banking activities. In 2014-2015, the real interest rate on loans, in general, was negative,
    which determined the loss of banking activity. The volume of refinancing of banks in 2014
    amounted to over UAH 165 billion, which reached 10.6% of the country’s nominal GDP. As a
    result, the NBU’s foreign exchange reserves dropped from $ 20.4 billion. In 2013 to $ 7.5
    billion. In 2014, in 2018 amid negative inflation expectations, the real interest rate on loans
    increased to 9.3% (Fig. 6), which holds back credit and investment activity. To activate the
    credit activity of banks, it is necessary to ensure the real value of credit resources, to increase
    the credibility of financial institutions, to create a single credit registry, to provide real
    protection of the rights of consumers of financial services. In the fight against excess
    liquidity, in 2014, the volume of deposit operations increased by 9.4 times compared to 2013,
    in 2015 compared to 2014 – 6.3 times, in 2016 compared to 2015 – 4, 6 times. However,

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  9. Viktoriya Marhasova, Yuliia Kovalenko, Olena Bereslavska, Oleksii Muravskyi,
    Maiia Fedyshyn, Olga Kolesnik

    withdrawing money from circulation requires considerable central bank spending, which leads
    to higher interest rates and a decrease in domestic capital competitiveness.
    In the face of bank liquidity surplus and the need for real sector lending, the central bank
    attracts funds through deposit certificates instead of managing the issue of money more
    effectively and stimulating lending to the economy. Improving the effectiveness of the NBU
    policy through the transmission channel’s interest channel requires stimulating the
    development of the interbank market; reduction of interest rate volatility and determination of
    benchmarks for the formation of value for money; ensuring the dependence of the basic
    interest rates on the discount rate, the frequency of changes of which should be planned in
    advance in order to reduce uncertainty and to form positive subjective expectations and
    confidence in the NBU. Unlike in Ukraine, developed countries are characterized by low-
    interest rate volatility, which makes government policy predictable and enhances central bank
    effectiveness in ensuring financial stability.

    Share of consumer loans to households in the total
    structure of loans to residents,%
    The difference between the interest rates on loans
    and deposits from residents, pp.
    Annual average weighted interest rate on national
    currency loans, relative to inflation, pp
    Share of foreign currency loans in total loans
    granted,%

    Money dollarization level,%

    The ratio of monetary aggregate M0 to M3,%

    The ratio of monetary aggregate M0 to M3,%

    Money turnover rate (ratio of nominal GDP to M3),
    number of revolutions

    -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

    2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

    Figure 6 Dynamics of monetary and credit security of Ukraine during 2010-2018
    The main threats to the monetary and credit security of Ukraine are the high level of
    dollarization of the money supply, the high level of cash use, the cost of credit resources (Fig.
    6). However, this is only part of the threats, since monetary security also depends on the
    efficiency of banking activities, the implementation of fiscal and debt policy, factors of an
    institutional nature (legal framework, shadow economy, confidence, etc.). We agree that the
    growth of external borrowing and the dollarization of the economy limit monetary policy.
    Against the backdrop of low economic growth, negative inflation expectations, growing
    budget deficits, a negative balance of payments current account, a reduction in foreign
    exchange reserves, external debt is one of the threats to Ukraine’s national security, which in
    2018 amounted to 87.9% of GDP. Despite the goals and activities of the National Bank for
    the development of virtual channels of the service economy, the level of cash use remains
    stable – 28.5% in 2018, which is associated with economic instability, high inflation, low
    public welfare, distrust of the banking system, by shadowing the economy. Overcoming
    macroeconomic imbalances, increasing citizens’ incomes, developing and promoting payment

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  10. Instruments of Monetary-and-Credit Policy in Terms of Economic Instability

    infrastructure using mobile devices will contribute to the growth of the non-cash economy.
    One of the priorities of the central bank is to reduce the dollarization of the money supply.
    Despite a slight decrease in the share of foreign currency loans in total lending, this figure
    remains threatening, at 42.8% in 2018.
    The country’s hostilities, high levels of external debt and the threat of default, imperfect
    tariff policy and negative inflation expectations, underdevelopment of the stock market, the
    volatility of the exchange rate and the absence of any central bank safeguards against
    currency risks, low levels of confidence in the national economy, which limits the
    effectiveness of the monetary policy. Changing the reserve requirements during 2008-2014,
    including raising them in foreign currency deposits and reducing them to zero in national
    deposits, did not solve the problem of dollarization of the economy.

    5. CONCLUSION
    The stability of prices and the exchange rate, investment activity and economic growth
    depends on the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation, which in the conditions of
    political instability determines the readiness of the economy to withstand external aggression
    and therefore affects the state of national security. Formally, the NBU has switched to
    inflation targeting, and in fact, it has a limited impact on price dynamics. The effectiveness of
    inflation targeting policy is possible under conditions of high public confidence in the central
    bank and financial institutions, development of the financial sector, ensuring a competitive
    environment, fiscal stability and debt security. The NBU uses mainly traditional instruments
    to ensure durability and stimulate economic growth, while in developed countries, securities,
    long-term lending are the main instruments.
    The substantiated need for modernization of available instruments of monetary policy of
    Ukraine in the conditions of market restrictions in the domestic and foreign markets and
    identified alternative tools of influence on economic growth available to the NBU. To achieve
    this goal, the following tasks were solved. Firstly, the state of the national banking system,
    which is the primary recipient of the impact of monetary policy, is examined, its strengths and
    weaknesses are revealed. Secondly, the targets and operational tasks of the NBU monetary
    policy are systematized, and the most effective tools are identified. Thirdly, the effectiveness
    of the NBU’s monetary policy, carried out using the existing arsenal of instruments, was
    assessed, its anti-crisis regulation was examined. Finally, proposals have been put forward for
    the introduction of new tools and methods for implementing monetary impact, and for the
    necessary reform of the goals and objectives of monetary policy.

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    http://www.iaeme.com/IJM/index.asp 53 editor@iaeme.com

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